The dust has settled from the 2026 NHL Draft Combine, and the whispers about who the Chicago Blackhawks will select at No. 4 overall are growing louder, and more interesting. For the first time in a while, we're seeing a new face consistently pop up in mock drafts, suggesting a potential shift in how the Blackhawks might be building their future.
A New Contender Emerges: Carson Carels
What makes this draft cycle particularly fascinating is the emergence of Carson Carels, a left-shot defenseman, as a serious contender for the Blackhawks at No. 4. Analysts like Scott Wheeler from The Athletic and Josh Wegman & Kyle Cushman from The Score are projecting him to Chicago. Personally, I think this is a really intriguing possibility. While the Blackhawks have been focused on offensive talent to complement Connor Bedard, securing a top-tier defenseman can be just as crucial for long-term success. Carels is being described as a Charlie McAvoy-type, which is high praise indeed. His offensive production from the blueline, with 73 points in 58 WHL games, is a stat that immediately stands out – it's the highest scoring rate for a WHL defenseman in their draft year since Scott Niedermayer in 1990-91. That kind of offensive upside from a defenseman is rare and incredibly valuable. From my perspective, the idea of him playing opposite right-shot defensemen like Artyom Levshunov or Sam Rinzel down the line is a strategic nuance that shouldn't be overlooked. It speaks to a thoughtful approach to building a balanced defensive corps.
The Enduring Appeal of Ivar Stenberg
However, it's not a done deal for Carels. The name that continues to be a strong presence in mock drafts, and one that many still see landing in Chicago, is Ivar Stenberg, a left-wing. Adam Kimelman and Mike G. Morreale of NHL.com both have the Blackhawks selecting Stenberg. What makes Stenberg so compelling is his offensive firepower and his ability to slot into a top-six role quickly. The comparison to Daniel and Henrik Sedin is a significant one, given Stenberg's 33 points in 43 SHL games as an 18-year-old, a feat not seen since the Sedin twins themselves in 1998-99. In my opinion, this speaks volumes about his readiness to contribute at the NHL level. With Connor Bedard, Frank Nazar, and Anton Frondell already in the fold, adding a dynamic winger like Stenberg who can keep pace with Bedard's skill and speed is a logical move. He's not just an offensive threat; he's also noted for his defensive reliability, which is a sign of a well-rounded player.
Navigating the Draft Landscape
This divergence in projections – a defenseman in Carels versus a forward in Stenberg – highlights the difficult decisions facing general manager Kyle Davidson. What many people don't realize is how much weight is placed on the intangible qualities and the potential fit within the team's existing structure. While the raw talent is always paramount, teams also consider roster balance and how a player might complement their core. If the Blackhawks are truly looking to secure a long-term running mate for Bedard, Stenberg’s offensive pedigree makes him a prime candidate. But if they believe the draft is deep enough at forward and that a game-changing defenseman is a rarer commodity, Carels becomes the more attractive option. One thing that immediately stands out is the potential for the Blackhawks to trade down if they feel they can still acquire a player they covet while gaining additional assets. However, at No. 4, the expectation is to select a foundational piece, and both Carels and Stenberg fit that bill in different ways.
The Bigger Picture: Building a Dynasty
Ultimately, the choice between a defenseman like Carels and a forward like Stenberg at No. 4 is about more than just filling a roster spot. It's about shaping the identity of the Blackhawks for years to come. If you take a step back and think about it, the team is in a rare position to build a true dynasty, with a generational talent like Bedard already leading the charge. The decisions made in this draft will echo throughout the organization. What this really suggests is that the Blackhawks are looking for impact players who can elevate the team immediately and for the foreseeable future. Whether that impact comes from a dynamic offensive winger or a commanding presence on the blue line remains to be seen, but the anticipation is palpable. It’s a testament to the exciting trajectory the Blackhawks are on, and I, for one, am eager to see which path they choose.
